U.S. Sanction on Ethiopia

“Bottom line for President Biden is that he values the relationship with Egypt and their partnership. He talked about the constructive dialogue on human rights, but we also believe and support that Egypt has legitimate superior — security concerns and believes security assistance to Egypt is a critical tool in supporting those needs whether it’s (Israel’s) border security, maritime security. We saw early in the administration when the Evergreen was stuck in the Suez, international maritime traffic, both commercial and military was stuck. Egypt matters for Suez transit and military overflight, cooperation with Egypt for Red Sea’s security, maritime security, and the current view of the administration are that Egypt is playing a constructive role when it comes to border security, Libya, the conflict in Gaza, GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam).”

This statement was part of the testimony of Dana Stroul, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, before a hearing on security assistance in the Middle East, senate foreign relations subcommittee. Dana was responding to a question by Senator Christopher “Chris” S. Murphy (D-CT), who asked:

“Egypt is a country that is receiving a significant amount of US Aid, $1.3 billion per year, and in the midst of a dizzying crackdown on political dissent, Mohammed Sultan was a US Citizen locked up in an Egyptian jail for years, they would throw sick prisoners into his cell, dying, sick prisoners and let them die there and let the corpse sit and rot inside his solitary confinement cell as a means to try to break him. That is the kind of behaviour we empower when we continue to send $1.3 billion to that regime. I heard what you said in your opening remarks, but what do you have to say about the worry that ultimately our talk on human rights doesn’t match up to our actions?”

In what appears to be a follow-up to this hearing, the Biden administration announced that it is withholding $130 million US military aid to Egypt out of the $300 million authorized preconditioned concerning human rights. Withheld military aid to Egypt is about a quarter of the $1.3 billion that Senator Chris Murphy referred to.

As a sovereign nation, the United States has every right to engage in whatever foreign and domestic policy it pursues. It has all the rights and privileges in the world to chart its social, security and economic policies. America’s bilateral or multilateral engagements with Egypt or any other sovereign nation in the world are of no concern to other countries. No other nation in the world has the right to impose unilateral sanctions or actions against it for pursuing its own sovereign economic, security or foreign policies. Only when there is an interstate conflict between the United States and another sovereign nation is the United Nations Security Council, as the primary responsible multilateral body to maintain international peace and security, would engage in bringing peace. Otherwise, the United States and Egypt have a sovereign and equal right to pursue their sovereign domestic or foreign policies as they see fit. No other country has the right to interfere in their domestic or foreign policy affairs.

On the contrary, however, the United States leaves no stones unturned to interfere in the foreign, domestic, security and economic policies of other sovereign nations while touting “respect for human rights” and “humanitarian interventions.” In this regard, it has imposed a range of unilateral sanctions on several other nations like Iran, Russia and China that have refused to capitulate to America’s policy demands. The latest victim of America’s unilateral sanctions is the poor East African nation, Ethiopia.

US-Ethiopia bilateral relations date back to 1903. Over the years, the bilateral relationship has gone up and down. Currently, the US-Ethiopia bilateral relationship is at its lowest point since the period in the era of the cold war between 1974 and 1991. The bilateral relationship between the two countries began taking a nosedive when Ethiopia refused to sign a “binding agreement” on the use of the Nile, a major source of Egypt’s water supply.

Egypt wishes to maintain its “Historic (colonial era) rights to the Nile” based on a 1959 treaty between Egypt and Sudan. The treaty allocates 66% of the Nile water to Egypt, 22% to Sudan & 0% for the source countries, including Ethiopia. When the 1959 treaty was signed, Ethiopia was not a party to this treaty as an independent and sovereign nation. By insisting on a “binding agreement” on the use of the Nile, Egypt wishes to lock back Ethiopia into the colonial era treaty. Ethiopia is currently finalizing the construction of the $4 billion self-financed hydroelectric dam project over the Blue Nile River and has begun filling the reservoir.

The Trump administration tried to mediate the negotiation between the three riparian countries under the auspices of the Treasury Department. However, it sought to put undue pressure on Ethiopia. Ethiopia withdrew from the talks, refusing to sign the “binding agreement” drafted by the World Bank and the US Treasury. True to his nature and furious how one of the “shit hole African countries” refuses to obey his orders, Trump was mad. He sanctioned Ethiopia, suspending $130 million in USAID. Trump also urged Egypt to “Blow up the dam” and said, “They (Egyptians) could have stopped it; they should have stopped it long before it was started. How do you let it get built, and then you say they have a dam?”

Once Ethiopia refused to sign a “Binding agreement,” the US sought other diplomatic ways to impose its foreign policy on Ethiopia and force change the course of Ethiopia’s sovereign, domestic economic policy. The Trump administration helped to “normalize” the relationship between Israel and Sudan. In exchange, Sudan is now removed from the “List of states that sponsor terrorism.” Sudan would also become a surrogate of the US/Egypt policy on Ethiopia, changing its long-held supporting position and adopting an approach of standing against the construction of the dam, despite benefits of the dam to Sudanese people by supplying electricity, preventing flood and regulating the Nile flow for all year round harvest.

In the meantime, the former ruling regime in Ethiopia — TPLF, launched an armed rebellion and insurrection from its base in Northern Ethiopia, a conflict which has now morphed into civil war for the past one year due to the uninvited US interference in Ethiopia’s domestic internal affairs, and a full-blown overt and covert support for the TPLF.

Sudan and Ethiopia have also clashed over a border issue. With the help and support of the US and its allies, Egypt sought to take Ethiopia’s hydroelectric dam project to the Security Council. However, the Security Council returned the issue to the African Union. It underlined that issues of Trans Boundary Rivers are not the mandate of the council.

Given Trump’s failure to “mediate” the issue and the obvious US bias favoring Egypt, the new Biden administration sought to follow a different path. It now professes it has taken a “neutral” position on the negotiations supporting the talks under the African Union. Biden’s administration also said it has decided to “de-link” Trump’s sanction from the dispute with Egypt, depending on “more recent developments,” referring to the situation in Northern Ethiopia.

While the Biden administration professes a “neutral” position on the issue of the dam, its actions and rhetoric are no different, if not worse, than that of the Trump administration. In terms of rhetoric, the warnings and threats of war have continued. For instance, US vice president Kamala Harris said, “wars have been fought over oil for years and generations. In a short matter of time, they will be fought over water.” Although it was not explicit, she was referring to the Nile and ongoing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia.

Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ), chair of the senate foreign relations committee, the highest law-making body in the US that has the power and authority to lay the groundwork for war authorizations, said, “The Egyptians have a red line. If the GERD issue is not dealt with in the way that assures them of their concerns, they’ll do what is necessary (meaning, they will go to war with Ethiopia).” Senator Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member of the senate foreign relations committee, asked whether the situation in Northern Ethiopia would be complicated if Egyptians “engage military or whatever.”

In action, the Biden administration has pursued a policy of fanning ethnic conflicts and supporting the TPLF’s insurrection. For instance, the US special envoy for the horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman and USAID Chief Samantha Power have been widely accusing Ethiopia and making allegations, in collaboration with CNN, of “Blocking Humanitarian access.” These accusations were echoed and amplified by other interest groups, lobbyists and the TPLF activists, paving the way for Biden’s executive order, which imposed unilateral sanctions against Ethiopia.

Biden’s executive order states that “the situation in and in relation to northern Ethiopia constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States” and “declare a national emergency to deal with that threat.” The situation in Northern Ethiopia poses “an unusual and extraordinary threat” to the United States not in its own right but because it relates to another foreign policy priority because the United States generally identifies its foreign policy interest in Africa as it relates to other foreign policy priorities; and the foreign policy interest of United States in Ethiopia is to ensure Egypt’s water security needs.

According to Egypt, its water security can be ensured only when Ethiopia becomes a party to the 1959 colonial-era treaty or somewhat similar version of it that would give Egypt its “Historic rights to the Nile waters.” Egypt and Sudan have also refused to renegotiate their water share with the 9 African countries who share the Nile along the river basin. They have refused to sign a new basin-wide cooperative agreement and maintain that colonial-era treaties must be respected. To continue the bipartisan support to Egypt’s claim of “Historic rights to the Nile waters,” the US now appears to be following three strategic pathways against Ethiopia.

The first short-term strategic plan is an attempt, to help the return to power of the former TPLF regime, as some form of power-sharing arrangement in the name of a “negotiated ceasefire.” This is bound to further destabilize and weaken Ethiopia by fueling ethnic tensions, thus delaying the dam’s completion or any other development projects on the Nile.

The second medium-term strategic plan is the executive order to sanction. While the sanction claims its purpose is to “maintain pressure on those responsible for the crisis,” in reality, it seeks to dry up the remittance flow into Ethiopia, which is one main source of finance for constructing the dam. The Secretary of Treasury is now authorized to “prohibit any transactions in foreign exchange” by persons that the Secretary of State identifies.

The third, long-term strategic plan is to ensure Ethiopia remains divided along ethnic lines and maintains the current “ethnic federalism” that the TPLF instituted once it came to power with the support and backing of the US at the end of the cold war in 1991. Following the end of the Cold War, the winners sought to form a “Yugoslavia-like state” in Ethiopia, much like winners of the First World War created the actual Yugoslavia. By maintaining the current “ethnic federalism” in Ethiopia, the US hopes Ethiopia would one day “disintegrate like Yugoslavia,” thus losing its sovereignty over the territory upon which the dam is being built. Only then Egypt’s, by extension, America’s “U.S. interest” would be secured.