Ethiopia and the prospect of a viable “Independent Tigray”
The current ruling party in Tigray, the Tigriyan Peoples Liberation Front — TPLF, is steering the region towards secession and a Somaliland like de facto independent state in Northern Ethiopia. In the following paragraphs, I will try to provide a brief overview on the possibility of a viable independent Tigray within the broader context of Ethiopia’s long History.
Brief overview of Ethiopia’s long history
Ethiopia is an ancient country of an estimated 100 million people with well over 80 cultural groups who have been living together since time immemorial. In its current shape as a nation, according to some, Ethiopia is an 18th-century empire and invention of “Ethnic Amhara colonial expansion to the south.” Those who maintain this narrative point to Menelik II who had somewhat restored the country’s territory to its original state.
Primary sources of the narrative which depicts Ethiopia as an 18th century Ethnic Amhara colonial expansion are Western/European “experts of Ethiopian history” and their students. These European “experts of Ethiopian history” were probably dumbfounded when they arrived at the North, and Eastern Ethiopia coast as they discovered that their claim of being the alpha and omega of human history was wrong. Almost all European “Experts of Ethiopian History” have tried to explain away the cognitive dissonance in all sorts of ways. Some argued that Ethiopian Civilization and history is a Southern Arabian Import. Others said it was the Europeans who transplanted what is considered Ethiopian history and Civilization. There were also attempts by some to paint Ethiopia as an “Honorary white nation.”
The main conclusion in all of these attempts to “explain away” Ethiopia’s history is that Africans cannot write and document their own history. There’s no doubt a well established, native, African history that dates back to biblical times was nowhere in the Europeans’ imagination at the time. For some European “Experts of African History”, Africans have no past, nor History. To the extent that Africa has any past history, it is “only the history of Europeans in Africa. The rest is darkness”. Ethiopia’s very existence flies full in the face of this Eurocentric narrative.
The European “Discovery of Ethiopia” probably dates back to the 16th century when the Portuguese looked for a mysterious Christian king named Prester John. Before the 16th century, Ethiopia had already shifted its center of power deeper south into the highlands. The center of Ethiopia’s power was based in Axum as a Christian Kingdome. During this period, Ethiopia ruled territories across the red sea up to Yemen. The fact that the center of power shifted farther deep into the Southern highlands meant that it was cut off from trading with the outside world. This shift also meant a weakening of the original state power. As a result, the country was subjected to repeated invasions from Arabs in the East coast, with little or no defense of the Ethiopian territories. These invasions resulted in the establishment of Arab/ Emir Sultanates in Harar, Eastern Ethiopia, and low lands of the rift valley. This period was also a time when the Ottoman Empire expanded to the North and Eastern Africa.
During this period, the Ottomans controlled the red sea and expanded Islam farther deep into the Ethiopian Highlands. Ottoman backed Giragn waged jihad and expanded the Islamic states, and maintained an Islamic state deep into the highlands for about 14 years between 1529 and 1543. By then, almost half of Ethiopia’s ancient Christian population was forcibly converted to Islam. Ethiopia’s territory was also reduced further as it lost much of the territories inhabited by Christians. The Portuguese and Ottomans fought a proxy war on Ethiopian soil, and Giragn was defeated. Following Giragn’s defeat, the Europeans tried to convert Ethiopian Christians to Catholicism. However, their attempts failed, which led to the expulsion of the Jesuits and the restoration of Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity as the country’s religion.
The European “Discovery of Ethiopia” was then followed by “Zemene Mesafint,” an era in Ethiopian history between the mid 17th and mid 18th centuries when regional warlords received European arms and fought each other to become figureheads and emperors. Those who outsmarted their local opponents, and the Europeans, survived and expanded their hold in these civil wars. Menelik II was among the most successful in this regard. He managed to defeat both his local opponents and the Europeans. Menelik also managed to restore and defend Ethiopia’s ancient territory somewhat back to its original state and maintained its independence. Menelik chose his coronation name as Menelik II to symbolize his project of restoring Ethiopia’s ancient territory back to its original state when Menelik I ruled the country.
The Italians colonized Eritrea for about 50 years, and in 1936, they invaded Ethiopia, occupying the country until 1941. Italy was defeated in the Second World War, and Ethiopia’s Territory was restored. Eritrea was liberated from the Italians, but the British occupied Eritrea between 1941 and 1952. At that time, the UN General assembly decided Eritrea should reunite with Ethiopia in a confederation and with its autonomy, against the will of the majority of Eritreans and Ethiopians who wanted to reunite unconditionally. The UN decision was probably influenced by the British and Italians, who feared retaliation against Europeans who had settled in Eritrea.
After the British ousted the Italians from Eritrea in 1941, they had planned to maintain Eritrea as their colonial protectorate. The British had also planned to carve up Eritrea into Muslim and Christian territory. According to the British plan, the Muslim inhabited areas of Western Eritrea would be annexed to Sudan’s Kasala region. In contrast, the Christian populated areas of Eritrea would become part of “Greater Tigray,” a kingdom that would encompass the Eritrean Highlands, the Ethiopian Tigray province with Masawa and Assab as the seaports. This led to the “first weyane rebellion” of 1943.
In 1962, Eritrea reunited with Ethiopia to become a province and an integral part of Ethiopia. Following this, the Europeans continued to prop up rebellions and separatist groups in Eritrea and Tigray. This western intervention led to the growth of the Eritrean Liberation Front — EPLF and Tigriyan Liberation Front -TPLF. However, these rebellions had almost zero chance of realizing their secession goals without foreign support. Given the strong historical and cultural ties, people of the two countries, particularly Ethiopian and Eritrean Orthodox Christians, want to maintain their relationship.
Between 1962 and 1973, the rebellion in Eritrea had little traction, and its support base was limited primarily to the Muslim pastoralists in Eritrea who lived in the low lands, and foreign support for the rebellion in Eritrea came primarily from Muslim/Arab countries.
In October 1973, Ethiopia became the ninth African country to break its relationship with Israel during the Arab-Israeli war and stood against apartheid in South Africa. This was a significant turn of events given Ethiopia’s role as the seat of Organization of African Unity (OAU). Ethiopia’s decision probably influenced several other African countries to make similar decisions. In the meantime, Ethiopia was also shifting its foreign policy, looking for more support and alliance with the East — Soviet Union and China. These events may have led to the decision by the West, mainly the British and Americans, to overthrow Hailesilasie and install a western friendly and allied government in Addis Abeba.
The process of removing Hailesialsie began with successive western-backed protests that were organized by university students, labor unions, peasants and ultimately the military. These events are known in Ethiopian history as the “student revolution” (Yetemariwoch abiyot). This resulted in the October 1974 Coup d’état and assassination of Emperor Hailesialsie. As a result, the rebellion in Eritrea and Tigray began to receive more western backing and support. The military government — Dergue, which replaced Hailesialsie, then allied with the Soviet Union to counter the Western backed separatists and fought to maintain Ethiopia’s territorial integrity until the end of the cold war in 1991.
Historically, Ethiopia had turned to the east every time its territorial integrity was threatened by western powers. For instance, in the early 1890s, while Ethiopia was preparing to go to war with Italy, Ras Mekonen — Minster of war under Menelik II, wrote to his Russian counterpart:
“We have not found among the Europeans who have become our neighbors and who desire our welfare and independence but those who want to deprive us of them. The West Europeans, in their desire for new land, have encircled us; in groups, they have crossed our borders to deprive us of our independence and are causing us trouble. Now we have heard and understood that there is no Orthodox Kingdom except Moscow.”
Menelik managed to establish a strong diplomatic relationship with the Russians and the Russians assured Menelik that they would not recognize Italy’s invasion of Ethiopia.
Prospect of a viable “Independent Tigray”
Following the end of the cold war, the TPLF and EPLF took power and Eritreans were given a referendum question to choose between “Freedom” or “Slavery” (‘Natsinet or Barinet’), and Eritrea seceded in 1993. The main impact of Eritrea’s secession on Ethiopia was the fact that Ethiopia became landlocked again and more isolated. However, Ethiopia mitigated the impact of Eritrea’s secession by using alternative accesses to the sea via Djibouti and Sudan.
Since the secession of Eritrea and its international recognition in 1993, a lot has changed. The Eritrean government’s relationship with the West deteriorated. Suddenly, Eritrea became a Pariah state to the West, and a “North Korea” state in Africa. Ethiopia (More precisely, the TPLF regime) and Eritrea (The EPLF) fought a bitter war over border dispute which led to a no war no peace stalemate which lasted until the TPLF was removed from power in 2018 and the separatist group retreated to Mekele, Tigray. China has also become a global contender in the world and a major stakeholder in Africa.
The Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) began as a Marxist nationalist movement born out of the student revolution movement. The TPLF capitalized on Tigrian nationalism, which was implanted by the British when they planned to invent a “Greater Tigray Kingdome” in 1941. The TPLF calls itself “Weyane”, making a reference to the 1943 first “Weyane Rebellion”, which was sponsored by the British and pacified by Hailesilasie’s wise leadership.
TPLF was officially inaugurated as a Marxist organization in 1975 and steadily grew after it allied with the Eritrean Liberation Front — EPLF in 1978. During the cold war period, the EPLF and TPLF received western backing and support. As the TPLF managed to expand its hold and advance, it abandoned its initial goal of establishing an independent “Greater Tigray.” It also received the backing and support of the Americans to assume power in Addis Abeba after the end of the cold war in 1991.
After the TPLF assumed power, Ethiopia essentially became a colonial protectorate of TPLF. TPLF divided the country along ethnic lines using “ethnic Federalism” in pretty much the same way as the European colonial powers divided and conquered Africa. Over the course of Weyane’s 27 years, Ethnic strife and conflict became rampant, corruption became the law of the land and other separatist groups such as the OLF and OLNF were emboldened.
These ethnic conflicts led the country to a brink of collapse while the Weyane continued to loot the country’s resources. Ultimately, Ethiopia’s situation reached a point of no return. Ethiopia’s risk of becoming another failed state in the Horn of Africa forced the western countries to abandon Weyane, and this hastened Weyane’s removal from power. At the moment, Weyane is trying to establish an independent state of Tigray in Northern Ethiopia. It has defied the federal government and boycotted the Ethiopian Federation, establishing its election commission and holding its “election” in September 2020, against the constitution, which the Weyane itself drafted.
Perhaps TPLF and some of its western backers may believe Tigray can become a viable independent state in Northern Ethiopia. However, the possibility of this and the impact it may have on Ethiopia has been indirectly answered by Eritrea’s secession.
Eritrea, at the time when it seceded from Ethiopia, was a small country of about 4 million people. Eritrea was also Ethiopia’s primary access to the sea and a region with limited agricultural resources, with only about 3% of its total landmass being suitable for cultivated agriculture. Before Eritrea’s independence, food grain was supplied from Ethiopia’s heartland even when there was a good harvest in Eritrea. Eritrea’s main agricultural wealth was its livestock and its strategic location for Ethiopia lies on the fact that Eritrea is located at the red seafront, controlling Massawa and Assab, where an oil refinery is located.
Eritrea also had some manufacturing industries that process agricultural products. Eritrea’s prospect as a small wealthy nation in the Horn of Africa depended largely on Eritrea’s prospect to maintain good relationships and trade with Ethiopia. However, this prospect encountered a stumbling block as a result of the 1998 border war. The significant impact of Eritrea’s secession on Ethiopia has been Ethiopia’s loss of access to the sea. However, this was mitigated by Ethiopia’s continued use of alternative ports in Djibouti and Sudan.
Tigray’s situation is no less different, if not grimmer, than the Situation of Eritrea when Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia. Tigray is a land-locked region with a minimal economic significance to Ethiopia. Tigray has a tiny territory of its own which is suitable for agriculture. In the same way food grain was supplied from the Ethiopian highlands to Eritrea, Tigray depends on grain imports from the Ethiopian high and low lands. In what appears to be an effort to mitigate this problem, the TPLF, in its 27 years of ruling Ethiopia, has annexed huge acres of fertile lands from Welqait and Raya parts of the Amahara region. Apparently, the primary environmental and climate reasons why Ethiopia’s center of power shifted from the North, in Axum, to the heartlands of the Ethiopian highlands remains true today as it was true some thousands of years ago.
On the other hand, TPLF has established a conglomerate of manufacturing industries collectively known as EFFORT. TPLF founded the EFFORT conglomerate using the money it looted from Ethiopian Banks during its rebellion. The conglomerate had monopolized Ethiopia’s manufacturing industry when TPLF was in power. However, this conglomerate’s situation has changed as the TPLF was removed from power. The viability of this manufacturing conglomerate largely depends on Ethiopia’s willingness to import its products. The two areas of fertile agricultural lands in Welqait and Raya are disputed territories as well. The prospect of a border war between Ethiopia and “independent Tigray” is as predictable and inevitable as the border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Perhaps the only situation that may be different for Tigray’s secession, compared to Eritrea’s, is Tigray’s religious significance for close to 50 million Ethiopian Orthodox Christians. The primary importance of Tigray for Ethiopia remains a religious and symbolic one, not economic and its viability as an independent state remain bleak.
